The Central Intelligence Agency
(CIA) made some predictions about the things that could have happened in
Nigeria shortly after the Nigerian Civil War. Some analysis were made
on the issue in order to ascertain the short and long term movement of
the secession on the country.
Some
declassified files were recovered from the archive of the CIA; although
these files have been approved for release, the information contained
in them are mind boggling as they seem to touch different aspects of the
nation's welfare.
These
things were made known in the declassified CIA files approved for
release. Biafra was one of the subjects assessed and some predictions
were made about the likely things that may happen with the group and the
nation as a whole.
Nigeria
was undergoing a civil war and there were no signs of an early end to
the fight when the assessment was made 18 months into the war. The
secession of the eastern part of the country made the war begin.
1. The Biafrans were headlock with the government
The
biafrans were convinced that the federal Nigerian authorities had the
intention of exterminating them as a tribe. They were willing to die of
hunger rather than renounce their secession.
2. Refugee problem
The
war led to a serious refugee problem for the Baifrans. The federal
troops moved into the secessionist territory forcing many Igbos to
retreat.
The CIA document revealed
that starvation was a major problem for the Biafra and they purported
that it would get worse if relief aid do not get to them then.
3. Several international relief agencies aided Biafra
The
impression many people have about the Nigerian civil is a little
different. Most times, the Biafrans were made to look like they were in
the battle alone.
They had the
support of the International Committee of the Red Cross and several
religious organizations. The Biafra had no seaport and all their
supplies had to be lifted into its one airstrip.
4. Fear of federal forces
The
Uk and US felt it would be good to send relief to the Biafrans as at
the time of the war over ground routes but the Igbos feared that the
same routes might be used by the federal troops.
The
federal authorities are suspicious that the agencies flying to the
relief to the Biafrans may also be transporting arms and have therefore
not given wholehearted support to the present relief effort.
5. Skepticism of the Nigerian government
The Nigerian government was
skeptical of the role of the US in aiding the refugees. The USSR had
been building a reputation of Nigeria’s friend in need by supplying
military assistance to the Nigerians.
Nigerians
have strong ties with the West, particularly the UK. They were
unwilling to break the ties and establish a closer bond with the Soviet
Union.
6. Nigeria’s suspicion of US
The
Biafrans received support from the French who have been supplying them
arms. The Biafra also received some military support from four African
countries that aligned with them.
With
this, Nigerians were suspicious of the US while the Soviets were given
more opportunities to supply arms to the Nigerians and try to increase
USSR presence and their influence there.
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